How To Hire Smarter Than The Market: A Toy Model

So this is an insane post which uses probability theory to make the case that hiring always means tradeoffs. The evidentialising (made up word, let me know if you think you know what I think I mean) is kind of overwhelming but there’s truth here - we don’t weight values accurately, therefore have poorer grasp of rational trade offs which might make us more competitive employers of highly skilled in demand talent. See how far you get ;-)